Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Sep 20 · 12:30 · SV Ried vs Wolfsberger AC
Likeliest: SV Ried win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Ried49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Wolfsberger AC24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Ried
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 11 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at TSV Hartberg (A)2-3
- Aug 21 · v Grazer AK 1902 (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at LASK (A)1-4
- Aug 9 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)1-2
Wolfsberger AC
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)0-3
- Sep 1 · v LASK (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)0-0
- Aug 15 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)1-2
- Aug 9 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SV Ried | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.