3. Liga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:30 · SV Waldhof Mannheim vs TSG Hoffenheim II U23
Likeliest: SV Waldhof Mannheim win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Waldhof Mannheim42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim II U2334%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Waldhof Mannheim
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Würzburger Kickers (A)0-2
- Oct 14 · v FC Ingolstadt 04 (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · at SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · v Preußen Münster (H)2-0
- Sep 16 · v Rot-Weiss Essen (H)1-2
TSG Hoffenheim II U23
WinWinLossLossWin
- Oct 18 · v SC Verl (H)2-1
- Oct 13 · at VfB Stuttgart II U21 (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at MSV Duisburg (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v SV Meppen (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · at FC Ingolstadt 04 (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | SV Waldhof Mannheim | TSG Hoffenheim II U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.