3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
Likeliest: SV Wehen Wiesbaden win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Wehen Wiesbaden50%49%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Wehen Wiesbaden
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at SSV Jahn Regensburg (A)0-0
- Oct 14 · v Alemannia Aachen (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at FC Ingolstadt 04 (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · v MSV Duisburg (H)1-4
- Sep 16 · at SC Fortuna Köln (A)2-0
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Preußen Münster (H)3-2
- Oct 14 · at FC Viktoria Köln (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v SV Waldhof Mannheim (H)1-5
- Sep 19 · at 1. FC Saarbrücken (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v SC Verl (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.