Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:30 · SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: SV Werder Bremen win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Werder Bremen40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
FC Augsburg35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 68% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Werder Bremen
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at 1. FC Köln (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
- Aug 22 · at LSK Hansa Lüneburg (A)3-0
- May 16 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
FC Augsburg
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)4-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Schalke 04 (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Energie Cottbus (A)2-0
- May 16 · at FC Union Berlin (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | SV Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.