Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 5 · 13:30 · SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 51%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Werder Bremen28%23%+5
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
RB Leipzig51%54%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 30% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Werder Bremen
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
- Aug 22 · at LSK Hansa Lüneburg (A)3-0
- May 16 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
- May 9 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-1
- May 2 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-3
RB Leipzig
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 29 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Eintracht Trier (A)6-0
- May 16 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
- May 9 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
- May 2 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | SV Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.