Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · SV Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Likeliest: SV Werder Bremen win · 54%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Werder Bremen54%53%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
SC Paderborn 0722%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Werder Bremen
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 9 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at 1. FC Köln (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
SC Paderborn 07
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | SV Werder Bremen | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.