Belgian Cup (Belgium) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:45 · SV Zulte Waregem vs RFC Seraing
Likeliest: SV Zulte Waregem win · 67%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
SV Zulte Waregem67%64%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
RFC Seraing15%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
SV Zulte Waregem
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v KAA Gent (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v RC Sporting Charleroi (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at KV Kortrijk (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · at KVC Westerlo (A)2-2
RFC Seraing
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at KAA Gent Reserve U23 (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · at Royal Knokke FC (A)5-2
- Sep 19 · at Jong KRC Genk U23 (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt (H)1-2
- Sep 4 · at FCV Dender (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | SV Zulte Waregem | RFC Seraing |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.