Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 17 · 17:30 · Swansea City vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 33%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City39%33%+5
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−3
OursMarket
Birmingham City35%38%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 47% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Jan 11 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Millwall (A)1-2
- Jan 1 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Dec 29 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
Birmingham City
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 10 · at Cambridge United (A)3-2
- Jan 4 · v Coventry City (H)3-2
- Jan 1 · at Watford (A)0-3
- Dec 29 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Dec 26 · v Derby County (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.