EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Swansea City vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 32%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City47%32%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Birmingham City28%41%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 59% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 68% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 44% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinLossWinDrawWin
- May 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Southampton (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Leicester City (A)1-0
Birmingham City
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- May 2 · at Portsmouth (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Hull City (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.