Championship (England) · Tue, Jan 20 · 19:45 · Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 43%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City43%45%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers31%25%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 75% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 64% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Jan 17 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Millwall (A)1-2
- Jan 1 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Dec 29 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
Blackburn Rovers
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 17 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Jan 11 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Jan 4 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-2
- Jan 1 · v Wrexham (H)0-2
- Dec 29 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.