Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 12:30 · Swansea City vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 48%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City48%53%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Bristol City27%19%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 81% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 74% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 14 · at Derby County (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-0
- Jan 31 · at Watford (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Hull City (A)1-2
- Jan 20 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
Bristol City
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 17 · v Wrexham (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Hull City (A)3-2
- Jan 30 · v Derby County (H)0-5
- Jan 24 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.