Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 15 · 15:00 · Swansea City vs Burnley
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Swansea City46%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Burnley28%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Mar 12 · at Watford (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- Mar 4 · at Preston North End (A)0-0
- Feb 22 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Stoke City (A)1-3
Burnley
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Mar 11 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Luton Town (H)4-0
- Mar 4 · at Cardiff City (A)2-1
- Mar 1 · at Preston North End (A)0-3
- Feb 21 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 4-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.