Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Swansea City vs Burnley
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Burnley29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
- Sep 1 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Derby County (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · v Sheffield United (H)0-0
Burnley
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 8 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Sep 2 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-4
- Aug 26 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 0-7-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.