Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Swansea City vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 40%
A 34% away win. The market says 24%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City40%50%−11
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic34%24%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 76% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 50% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 68% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 25 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Southampton (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Leicester City (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
Charlton Athletic
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Apr 25 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
- Apr 18 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Preston North End (H)1-2
- Apr 6 · at Watford (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Swansea City form·Charlton Athletic form·Head-to-head record