Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 21 · 17:15 · Swansea City vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 42%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City32%30%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−2
OursMarket
Coventry City42%42%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 42% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 13 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Mar 10 · at Portsmouth (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Feb 28 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Feb 24 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
Coventry City
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 14 · v Southampton (H)1-2
- Mar 11 · v Preston North End (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
- Feb 28 · v Stoke City (H)2-1
- Feb 25 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.