Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 25 · 19:45 · Swansea City vs Derby County
Likeliest: Derby County win · 40%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City37%43%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Derby County40%27%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 39% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 73% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 61% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Nov 22 · at Bristol City (A)0-3
- Nov 8 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-4
- Nov 5 · at Preston North End (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-1
- Oct 29 · v Manchester City (H)1-3
Derby County
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 22 · v Watford (H)2-3
- Nov 8 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)2-1
- Nov 4 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
- Oct 25 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.