Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 16:30 · Swansea City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 45%
A 29% home win. The market says 25%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City29%25%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Middlesbrough45%49%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 34% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 3 · at Sheffield United (A)3-3
- Mar 21 · v Coventry City (H)0-3
- Mar 13 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Mar 10 · at Portsmouth (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
Middlesbrough
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 3 · v Millwall (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-0
- Mar 14 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.