Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Swansea City vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Norwich City35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Lincoln City (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
- Sep 1 · v Watford (H)2-0
Norwich City
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)3-4
- Sep 17 · at Manchester City (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at Middlesbrough (A)3-4
- Sep 9 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Sheffield United (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.