Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · Swansea City vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City52%45%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Oxford United23%26%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 64% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 29 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-3
- Nov 25 · v Derby County (H)1-2
- Nov 22 · at Bristol City (A)0-3
- Nov 8 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-4
- Nov 5 · at Preston North End (A)1-2
Oxford United
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Nov 28 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-1
- Nov 25 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-1
- Nov 8 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-2
- Nov 4 · v Stoke City (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.