Championship (England) · Tue, Dec 9 · 19:45 · Swansea City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City47%43%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−4
OursMarket
Portsmouth29%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 60% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossLossLossLossWin
- Dec 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-3
- Nov 25 · v Derby County (H)1-2
- Nov 22 · at Bristol City (A)0-3
- Nov 8 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-4
Portsmouth
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 29 · v Bristol City (H)0-1
- Nov 26 · at Sheffield United (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Millwall (H)3-1
- Nov 8 · at Hull City (A)2-3
- Nov 5 · v Wrexham (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.