Championship (England) · Tue, Feb 24 · 19:45 · Swansea City vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 45%
A 28% away win. The market says 21%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City45%52%−7
OursMarket
Draw27%26%0
OursMarket
Preston North End28%21%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 46% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 71% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossWinWinLossWin
- Feb 21 · v Bristol City (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Derby County (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-0
- Jan 31 · at Watford (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Hull City (A)1-2
Preston North End
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Feb 20 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Watford (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Swansea City form·Preston North End form·Head-to-head record