Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Swansea City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 44%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City44%40%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Sheffield United32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 50% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 60% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 55% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Birmingham City (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-1
Sheffield United
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 15 · v Birmingham City (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Mansfield Town (A)3-0
- May 2 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Preston North End (H)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.