Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 18 · 14:00 · Swansea City vs Southampton
Likeliest: Southampton win · 49%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City28%24%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Southampton49%52%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 53% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 76% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 32% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Apr 11 · at Leicester City (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Sheffield United (A)3-3
- Mar 21 · v Coventry City (H)0-3
- Mar 13 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
Southampton
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Apr 7 · at Wrexham (A)5-1
- Apr 4 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.