Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 15:00 · Swansea City vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 45%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City45%46%0
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Stoke City29%26%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 45% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 64% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Feb 24 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Bristol City (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Derby County (A)0-2
- Feb 8 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-0
Stoke City
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 28 · at Coventry City (A)1-2
- Feb 25 · v Oxford United (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Feb 11 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.