Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · Swansea City vs Watford
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 61%
A 61% home win. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City61%50%+12
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Watford18%24%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 50% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 67% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Derby County (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · v Sheffield United (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Birmingham City (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
Watford
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 29 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · v Peterborough United (H)1-5
- Aug 22 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Crawley Town (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.