Championship (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 15:00 · Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 35%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City44%35%+9
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion30%36%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 43% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 65% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 49% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinLossWinLossWin
- Dec 29 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
- Dec 19 · v Wrexham (H)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
West Bromwich Albion
LossWinLossLossWin
- Dec 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Dec 20 · at Hull City (A)0-1
- Dec 12 · v Sheffield United (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · at Southampton (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-0-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Swansea City form·West Bromwich Albion form·Head-to-head record