FA Cup (England) · Sun, Jan 11 · 14:30 · Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 36%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City40%36%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
West Bromwich Albion35%36%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 50% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Jan 4 · at Millwall (A)1-2
- Jan 1 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Dec 29 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Coventry City (A)0-1
- Dec 19 · v Wrexham (H)2-1
West Bromwich Albion
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Jan 5 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Jan 1 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Dec 20 · at Hull City (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 0-0-10 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.