Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Swansea City vs West Ham United
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 51%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City23%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
West Ham United51%48%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 13 · at Millwall (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Lincoln City (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
West Ham United
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 14 · at Lincoln City (A)6-0
- Oct 9 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Millwall (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Fulham (H)2-3
- Sep 11 · v Wrexham (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.