Championship (England) · Fri, Dec 19 · 20:00 · Swansea City vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 41%
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City41%41%0
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Wrexham32%29%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 43% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 59% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 13 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-3
- Nov 25 · v Derby County (H)1-2
Wrexham
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Dec 13 · v Watford (H)2-2
- Dec 10 · at Hull City (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-1
- Nov 26 · v Bristol City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.