Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 19:00 · Swansea City vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Swansea City win · 47%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swansea City47%42%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Wrexham29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 49% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 59% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swansea City
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 1 · v Watford (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Derby County (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · v Sheffield United (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Birmingham City (H)0-1
Wrexham
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 2 · at Millwall (A)3-0
- Aug 28 · v Birmingham City (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Watford (H)1-1
- Aug 17 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Aug 7 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Swansea City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.