League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Swindon Town vs Crewe Alexandra
Likeliest: Crewe Alexandra win · 36%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swindon Town35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Crewe Alexandra36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swindon Town
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Rochdale (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Accrington Stanley (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newport County (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Salford City (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Crystal Palace U21 (H)1-2
Crewe Alexandra
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at Blackpool (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Bristol Rovers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Rotherham United (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Aston Villa U21 (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Swindon Town | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-7-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.