Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Sep 22 · 18:00 · Swindon Town vs Newport County
Likeliest: Swindon Town win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swindon Town46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Newport County29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 52% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swindon Town
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Salford City (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Crystal Palace U21 (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at York City (A)0-4
- Sep 5 · v Colchester United (H)3-1
- Sep 1 · v Port Vale (H)3-1
Newport County
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · at Accrington Stanley (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Northampton Town (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Salford City (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Swindon Town | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.