League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Swindon Town vs Walsall
Likeliest: Walsall win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Swindon Town32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Walsall39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Swindon Town
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Rochdale (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Accrington Stanley (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Newport County (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Salford City (A)0-1
Walsall
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 13 · v Fulham U21 (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Fleetwood Town (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Stevenage (H)1-6
- Sep 19 · v Port Vale (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Swindon Town | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.