UEFA Nations League · Sat, Oct 3 · 18:45 · Switzerland vs Slovenia
Likeliest: Switzerland win · 72%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Switzerland72%70%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Slovenia9%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Switzerland
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 29 · at Scotland (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · at North Macedonia (A)3-0
- Jul 12 · at Argentina (A)1-1
- Jul 7 · v Colombia (H)0-0
- Jul 3 · v Algeria (H)2-0
Slovenia
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 29 · v North Macedonia (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Scotland (H)0-0
- Jun 7 · at Croatia (A)1-2
- Jun 4 · v Cyprus (H)1-1
- Mar 31 · at Montenegro (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Switzerland | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.