A-League Men (Australia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 04:00 · Sydney FC vs Adelaide United
Likeliest: Sydney FC win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sydney FC45%44%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Adelaide United28%30%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 59% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sydney FC
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Western Sydney Wanderers (H)0-0
- May 23 · at Auckland (A)0-1
- May 16 · at Newcastle Jets (A)1-1
- May 9 · v Newcastle Jets (H)1-1
- May 2 · at Melbourne Victory (A)1-0
Adelaide United
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 15 · at BG Pathum United (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · v Wofoo Tai Po (H)3-0
- Aug 11 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)0-2
- May 15 · v Auckland (H)0-3
- May 9 · at Auckland (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Sydney FC | Adelaide United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.