A-League Men (Australia) · Fri, Oct 16 · 09:00 · Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Likeliest: Sydney FC win · 53%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Sydney FC53%46%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Western Sydney Wanderers22%29%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 56% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 71% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 61% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Sydney FC
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- May 23 · at Auckland (A)0-1
- May 16 · at Newcastle Jets (A)1-1
- May 9 · v Newcastle Jets (H)1-1
- May 2 · at Melbourne Victory (A)1-0
- Apr 26 · v Auckland (H)2-2
Western Sydney Wanderers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · v Melbourne Victory (H)0-2
- Apr 18 · at Wellington Phoenix (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v Sydney (H)0-2
- Apr 4 · at Melbourne City (A)0-3
- Mar 20 · v Adelaide United (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Sydney FC | Western Sydney Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.