Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 · Talleres de Córdoba Reserve vs Unión Santa Fe Reserve
Likeliest: Talleres de Córdoba Reserve win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Talleres de Córdoba Reserve45%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+2
OursMarket
Unión Santa Fe Reserve26%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Talleres de Córdoba Reserve
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 8 · at Atlético Tucumán Reserve (A)0-2
- Oct 1 · v Godoy Cruz Reserve (H)3-1
- Sep 23 · at Belgrano Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 9 · v Barracas Central Reserve (H)2-1
Unión Santa Fe Reserve
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 6 · v Banfield Reserve (H)5-0
- Sep 30 · at Rosario Central Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 25 · at Colón Reserve (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · v Tigre Reserve (H)5-1
- Sep 9 · at San Lorenzo Reserve (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Talleres de Córdoba Reserve | Unión Santa Fe Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 1-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.