Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Talleres vs Defensa y Justicia
Likeliest: Talleres win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Talleres45%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Defensa y Justicia25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Talleres
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Boca Juniors (A)1-2
- Oct 12 · v CA Independiente (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · v Belgrano (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (H)2-1
Defensa y Justicia
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v Instituto De Córdoba (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v San Lorenzo (H)3-0
- Sep 18 · at Central Córdoba (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Talleres | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.