National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Tamworth vs Barrow AFC
Likeliest: Barrow AFC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tamworth33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Barrow AFC40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tamworth
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Hartlepool United (A)1-0
- Sep 30 · v Sutton United (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Aldershot Town (A)1-5
- Sep 19 · v Wealdstone (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Southend United (A)1-3
Barrow AFC
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Wealdstone (H)2-1
- Sep 29 · v Scunthorpe United (H)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Southend United (A)4-2
- Sep 19 · v Aldershot Town (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Solihull Moors (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Tamworth | Barrow AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.