National League (England) · Wed, Sep 30 · 18:45 · Tamworth vs Sutton United
Likeliest: Tamworth win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tamworth40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Sutton United33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tamworth
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at Aldershot Town (A)1-5
- Sep 19 · v Wealdstone (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Southend United (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Harrogate Town (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Boston United (H)2-2
Sutton United
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · v Forest Green Rovers (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Eastleigh (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Scunthorpe United (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Barrow AFC (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Tamworth | Sutton United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.