LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Sep 20 · 18:30 · Técnico Universitario vs Delfín
Likeliest: Técnico Universitario win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Técnico Universitario38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Delfín30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Técnico Universitario
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 13 · at Leones del Norte (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v LDU (H)1-3
- Sep 1 · at Delfín (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · v Guayaquil City (H)2-3
Delfín
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 13 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)0-1
- Sep 1 · v Técnico Universitario (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Mushuc Runa (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v Aucas (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Técnico Universitario | Delfín |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-5 | 1-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.