J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita
Likeliest: Tegevajaro Miyazaki win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tegevajaro Miyazaki44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Blaublitz Akita25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 41% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Kataller Toyama (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)3-2
Blaublitz Akita
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Iwaki FC (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Albirex Niigata (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Blaublitz Akita |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.