J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:00 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Jubilo Iwata
Likeliest: Jubilo Iwata win · 39%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tegevajaro Miyazaki32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Jubilo Iwata39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Kataller Toyama (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)3-0
Jubilo Iwata
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.