J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs RB Omiya Ardija
Likeliest: RB Omiya Ardija win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tegevajaro Miyazaki31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
RB Omiya Ardija40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 26 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Vanraure Hachinohe (A)3-0
- Sep 12 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Sagan Tosu (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)2-4
RB Omiya Ardija
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 26 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Fujieda MYFC (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Oita Trinita (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | RB Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.