J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:00 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Tochigi City FC
Likeliest: Tegevajaro Miyazaki win · 50%
Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 9% · 1–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Tegevajaro Miyazaki50%49%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Tochigi City FC25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 31 · v Oita Trinita (H)2-0
- Oct 25 · at Montedio Yamagata (A)2-0
- Oct 21 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)2-1
- Oct 17 · v Jubilo Iwata (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Kataller Toyama (A)1-1
Tochigi City FC
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 31 · v Iwaki FC (H)1-3
- Oct 25 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-2
- Oct 21 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)2-2
- Oct 17 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Tochigi City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-1 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.