Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Jan 25 · 11:15 · Telstar vs AZ
Likeliest: Telstar win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 26%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Telstar45%26%+19
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
AZ33%50%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 59% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 60% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 50% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 74% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 34% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 17 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
- Jan 14 · at Almere City (A)3-1
- Jan 11 · v Ajax (H)2-3
- Dec 20 · at NAC Breda (A)1-0
- Dec 16 · at HSV Hoek (A)4-1
AZ
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Jan 21 · v Excelsior (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-3
- Jan 14 · v Ajax (H)6-0
- Jan 10 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Dec 21 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Telstar | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.