Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Feb 21 · 19:00 · Telstar vs Excelsior
Likeliest: Telstar win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Telstar44%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Excelsior29%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
LossWinLossWinWin
- Feb 14 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-0
- Feb 9 · v Jong Utrecht (H)6-0
- Jan 31 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Jong Ajax (H)3-0
- Jan 17 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-1
Excelsior
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 16 · v Helmond Sport (H)1-1
- Feb 10 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-3
- Feb 1 · v Vitesse (H)1-3
- Jan 26 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · at SC Cambuur (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Telstar | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.