Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Nov 1 · 20:00 · Telstar vs Excelsior
Likeliest: Telstar win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Telstar43%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Excelsior30%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 29 · at Lisse (A)5-0
- Oct 25 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-1
- Oct 19 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-3
- Oct 5 · at AZ (A)1-2
- Sep 28 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)4-2
Excelsior
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 26 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)0-2
- Oct 19 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at FC Volendam (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Telstar | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.