Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 4 · 16:45 · Telstar vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: Telstar win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 36%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Telstar44%36%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
FC Groningen33%38%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 59% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 62% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 64% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 48% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
WinLossWinLossWin
- Mar 22 · v PSV (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-3
- Mar 8 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)4-1
- Mar 4 · at AZ (A)1-2
- Feb 27 · v NAC Breda (H)3-0
FC Groningen
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Mar 22 · v AZ (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Ajax (H)3-1
- Mar 1 · at FC Volendam (A)2-3
- Feb 22 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Telstar | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.