Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 23 · 13:30 · Telstar vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: Telstar win · 44%
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Telstar44%29%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−4
OursMarket
FC Utrecht33%45%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 55% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 55% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 71% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 39% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Telstar
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Nov 7 · at FC Twente (A)0-0
- Nov 1 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Oct 29 · at Lisse (A)5-0
- Oct 25 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-1
- Oct 19 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-3
FC Utrecht
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Nov 9 · v Ajax (H)2-1
- Nov 6 · v Porto (H)1-1
- Nov 2 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-0
- Oct 26 · at AZ (A)1-4
- Oct 23 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Telstar | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.